Storm of noncommunicable diseases may hit South America, warns a newly released report from the Pan American Health Organization (PAHO) in collaboration with Harvard University’s T.H. Chan School of Public Health. The study projects that between 2020 and 2050, the economic cost of noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) and mental health issues could equal the entire annual GDP of Latin America and the Caribbean, driven by rising healthcare expenses and loss of productivity.
The report, titled Major Storm on the Horizon, paints a concerning picture for the region’s health and economic future. PAHO Director Jarbas Barbosa emphasized that the economic toll of NCDs and mental health disorders is “unacceptable” due to the harm inflicted on families, communities, and national economies. He urged governments to adopt proven health promotion strategies and strengthen primary healthcare systems to combat the crisis before it escalates.
Economic Impact Could Be Trillions
Lead author David Bloom, professor of economics and demography at Harvard, explained that healthier populations contribute more to the economy by maintaining productivity and savings. His team’s analytical model covered 10 South American countries — Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Paraguay, Peru, Uruguay, and Venezuela — and forecasted a staggering GDP loss of $7.3 trillion over three decades if the health crisis continues unchecked.
Brazil is expected to face the heaviest blow, with a projected $3.7 trillion GDP loss, three times higher than Argentina and Colombia. While Brazil’s main economic threat comes from cardiovascular diseases, other countries face different primary challenges — cancer in Argentina, Bolivia, Chile, Ecuador, Peru, and Uruguay; diabetes and kidney diseases in Colombia and Venezuela; and mental health disorders in Paraguay.
Per capita losses paint another grim reality — Uruguay, Argentina, and Venezuela lead the list when measured against population size. Experts attribute this rising burden to an aging population, which is advancing at the fastest rate globally, as well as increased exposure to preventable risk factors such as smoking, poor diets, alcohol use, physical inactivity, and air pollution.
For more information on global health statistics, you can visit the World Health Organization’s official website.
Prevention and Investment Can Pay Off
The report highlights cost-effective interventions that can significantly curb NCDs and mental health challenges. These include higher taxes on tobacco, alcohol, and sugary drinks; front-of-package nutritional labeling; HPV vaccinations; cervical cancer screening; public awareness programs to promote physical activity; and affordable pharmacological treatments for heart disease and stroke patients.
Silvana Luciani, head of PAHO’s NCD Unit, noted that every dollar spent on these measures could yield two to three dollars in economic return. Additionally, investing in modern medical technology — from portable blood pressure monitors to artificial intelligence diagnostics — can enhance early detection and treatment.
Barbosa underscored that improving primary healthcare access is vital. “With a relatively low investment in primary care, we can prevent people from discovering their illnesses only after suffering severe health events like strokes or heart attacks,” he said.
Integrating Mental and Physical Health
Another key recommendation is integrating mental health care into chronic disease management. Experts argue that treating both dimensions together reduces costs and saves lives. For example, a patient with diabetes should also be screened for depression, while someone treated for depression should have their physical health checked regularly.
Matías Irarrázaval, PAHO’s regional mental health advisor, stated that every dollar invested in treating depression and anxiety yields four dollars in economic benefit. “The question is not whether countries can afford to invest in mental health — it’s whether they can afford not to,” he stressed.
Santiago Levín, president of the Latin American Association of Psychiatrists, reinforced this sentiment, saying, “There is only one health. Public health is the health arm of social equity, and social equity is the ultimate goal of politics.”
The report sends a clear message — South American nations face an impending health and economic crisis unless decisive action is taken. Strengthening public health systems, implementing preventive measures, and addressing mental and physical health together could save not only billions in healthcare costs but also countless lives.
